Who’s Not Moving Why?
Source: William Frey, Brookings Institute, via NY Times. Click to access article
Some trends become evident before they become clear. When it comes to American households’ patterned behavior and what it means, few get it as quickly and clearly as former American Demographics editor Cheryl Russell, who runs New Strategist Publications out of Ithaca, NY.
When an astonishing data point comes out from the U.S. Census Bureau — which is almost never — you can count on Cheryl, who eats, sleeps, and breathes Census data, to help decipher how it compares and what it really says.
Her latest American Consumers newsletter takes on the latest Census shocker on household mobility trends. Here’s a direct excerpt, complete with a dollop of business wisdom at the bottom of the passage.
If you really want to know how the priorities of Americans are changing, then take a look at their reasons for moving and how those have changed over the past few years.
- Not buying: The number of people who moved because they wanted to buy a home fell by 48 percent, from 3.9 million in 2000-01 to just 2.0 million in 2007-08–the largest decline among all reasons for moving. While there probably is some pent up demand for buying a home, it is possible that many Americans are reconsidering the importance of ownership now that they know the risks.
- Moving closer to work: The number of people who moved to shorten their commute increased by 80 percent between 2000-01 and 2007-08, rising from 1.2 to 2.2 million–an 80 percent rise and the largest increase among all reasons for moving. This is bad news for the far-flung suburbs, which will be last in line for any economic recovery.
- Delaying retirement: The sharp drop in the mobility of 60-to-61-year-olds is reflected in the 38 percent decline in the percentage of people who moved because of retirement between 2000-01 and 2007-08. Retirement savings have been decimated and the age of retirement is rising, which is why state-to-state migration has plunged. This trend could gut destination retirement areas.
- Staying closer to home: The data show an ominous decline in the number of young adults who moved to attend or leave college, with the figure falling by 26 percent between 2000-01 and 2007-08. This decline is occurring as a growing proportion of students opt for less-expensive in-state public schools and is yet another warning sign for the nation’s overpriced private colleges.
- Downscaling expectations: The percentage of people who moved because they wanted cheaper housing climbed by 35 percent between 2000-01 and 2007-08. At the same time, the percentage who moved because they wanted a better home or apartment fell by 29 percent.
Americans are dropping out of the housing market, delaying retirement, and downscaling their expectations for college and home. These trends may be temporary, but the best way to survive them is to assume they are permanent.
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