Data Set
This latest macro data download from friends in the Hanley Wood Market Intelligence group.
Housing Market
National average mortgage rates declined to 6.04% in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey released weekly by Freddie Mac on November 20th. This is the third straight week that mortgage rates have declined. In the week ending November 14th, the MBA’s seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index dropped to 248.5 from 284.4 in the previous week. The purchase index is now at its lowest levels since January 2001. The latest figure reflects a 12.62 percent drop from last week and a 41.41% drop from the same period last year.Housing reports produced mixed signals last month as increased sales activity came at the expense of falling home prices. Both new and existing home sales posted gains in September. New home sales in September increased 2.7% to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 464,000 units. Sales for the previous three months, however, were revised lower by 12,000 units. The number of new homes for sale continued to decline as builders continue to scale back production. New home inventory declined to 396,000 which is the lowest it has been since June 2004. New home prices remained weak in September as it recorded its second straight monthly decline. Median new home prices now stand at $218,400 which is the lowest median price recorded since September 2004.
Annualized sales of total existing homes in September rebounded 5.5% from August levels to 5.180 million units which is the highest annualized pace of existing home sales since August 2007. Sales of existing homes are now up 1.4% from the 5.11 million units in September 2007. Median existing home prices in September declined to $191,600 which is the lowest it has been since August 2004 and the third straight month that median existing home prices have recorded a decline. Inventory figures continued to improve last month as the number of existing homes for sale fell for the second straight month to a preliminary 4.266 million units for sale. Inventory levels are now at their lowest since March.
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Employment Growth (1,181,000) D- Unemployment Rate 6.5% C- Real GDP Growth (0.3%) F Consumer Confidence 38.0 F Purchase Mortgage Applications 248.5 F Mortgage Rates 6.04% A+ Median Price Existing Home $191,600 F Existing Home Sales 5,180,000 C Existing Home Inventory 4,266,000 F Existing Home Affordability 56.7% B+ Median Price New Home $218,400 F New Home Sales 464,000 F New Home Inventory 396,000 F New Home Affordability Ratio 51.3% A
And if you think this is tough grading, have a look at the following.
Housing Supply INDICATOR STAT GRADE CLICK INDICATOR FOR ANALYSIS > Total Building Permits 708,000 F > -Single-Family Permits 460,000 F -Multifamily (5+) Permits 218,000 F > Total Housing Starts 791,000 F -Single-Family 531,000 F -Multifamily (5+) 247,000 F > Manufactured Housing Placements 75,000 F -% of Households 0.06% F -1 year % change -20.21% F Housing Growth Ratio 3.4 F > Housing Vacancies 9.9%/2.8% F -Rental Units 9.9% F -Homeowner Units 2.8% F
Housing Demand INDICATOR STAT GRADE CLICK INDICATOR FOR ANALYSIS Employment 137,656,000 D- -1 year Growth -1,181,000 F -Growth Rate -0.85% F Unemployment Rate 6.5% C- Population 301,621,157 D - 1 year Growth 2,866,338 C - Growth Rate 0.96% C Households 108,888,000 C - 1 year Growth 1,342,000 C - Growth Rate 1.0% C Homeownership Rate 67.9% A Household Income $46,326 D+ -median $46,326 D+ - 1 year Change 1.1% Employment/Permit Ratio (1.67) F Demand/Supply Ratio (1.39) F
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